![]() ![]() The main pillars of this argument can be found here:Ī Primer On Long-Term Sector Rotations And Where We Are NowĬonjunction & Disruption: Technology, War, And Asset Prices Inverted yield curves have also been signals within this context, and all of these conditions had been met by the beginning of this year. Some of the indicators that equity markets are preparing to transition (from a "secular" bull market to a "secular" bear market) include very high PE ratios, high earnings growth, highly dispersed long-term sectoral returns, high tech/low energy performance, the rising prospects of a violent global political realignment, the market saturation phase of a technological supercycle, and an energy shock. This thesis is rooted in the notion that markets do not behave in the way a bottom-up logic would suggest but that they instead behave in a way that implies a kind of systemic logic tied into specific valuation, inflation, geopolitical/ideological, and technological dynamics. ![]() Over the last twelve months, I have been arguing for both cyclical and "secular" downturns across the entire equity space, with tech leading the way lower. ![]()
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